A statistical look at the world.
The Edge of Logic: Reflections on Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems
In the early 20th century, a young Austrian logician named Kurt Gödel did something remarkable. He proved a pair of theorems that would shake the foundations of logic and forever alter how we think about truth. These findings, now known as Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems, revealed something deeply unsettling: in any reasonable formal system powerful enough to describe basic arithmetic, there will always be true statements that cannot be proven within the system itself.
Forecasting the End: Brandon Carter’s Doomsday Argument and Its Econometric Implications
In the world of econometrics, we're accustomed to predicting recessions, estimating causal impacts, and modeling long-term growth. But what if the tools of probabilistic reasoning could also offer insight into humanity's own lifespan? This is the bold proposal behind physicist Brandon Carter’s Doomsday Argument, a theory that, while grounded in philosophical probability, has clear implications for statistical reasoning and long-term forecasting.
Looking back at the VII VESTING Lustrum: Voyage
I hope you all had an incredible time during the lustrum week this past April. For those who couldn’t be there, this is the perfect chance to catch up on all the unforgettable activities that took place. And for those who were there—it’s time to relive some of the memories that made the week so special.
Will Machine Learning Replace Econometrics?
Econometrics used to be the gold standard for making sense of economic data, relying on carefully structured models, causal inference, and transparent relationships. But machine learning doesn’t play by those rules. It skips the theory, digests mountains of data, and delivers startlingly accurate predictions. As industries crave speed and scale, one question is becoming harder to ignore: do we still need econometrics at all?
Can Machine Learning Predict the Champions League Winner?
Every year, football fans around the world passionately debate which club will win the UEFA Champions League. Experts argue over tactics, fans praise their favourite players, and bookmakers adjust the odds after every match. But what if we could go beyond opinion and use data to make predictions? That’s exactly what machine learning tries to do.
Study Harder or Smarter?
Every student has faced the dilemma: do I pull an all-nighter before an exam and reread the lecture slides for the third time? Or do I make sure to get a good night’s sleep? What is more important? Does more study time lead to higher results? Or does the way I study matter more? Let us explore whether the key to academic success is studying harder or smarter.
What can lipstick sales tell us
There are multiple ways to predict an upcoming economic downturn. J.P. Morgan for example has made a model with that combines the yield curve, Private sector debt service, economic momentum, profits and financial markets. These are also common predictors to forecast an economic recession . However, there are also unconventional indexes that can potentially predict an economic downturn. One of these indexes is the lipstick index.
Pirates’ Treasure Problem
Today is your lucky day! You are the captain of a 10-member pirate ship, and together with the rest of your crew, you have found treasure: 100 indivisible gold coins! Now, the question arises as to how the treasure should be divided. Though it might be tempting as the captain to keep all the gold for yourself, there is a very strict pirate code. You must propose the first division, and every crew member gets to vote on your proposal. If your proposed division receives at least half of the votes, it is accepted. However, if your proposal is not accepted, you must, unfortunately, walk the plank. The second-highest-ranking pirate is then allowed to make a proposal under the same conditions, and so on. So, what is it that you propose in order to avoid the plank?
The Collatz Conjecture: Simple to State, Impossible to Solve
This article is on a math problem that sounds like a riddle your younger sibling could understand. But then, after hours (or decades) of trying, thinking, and computational simulations, you are still far away from a solution. Below you will find all about the Collatz conjecture.
Neha - Trainee De Nederlandsche Bank
Neha heeft de master Econometrics and Operations Research aan de Vrije Universiteit van Amsterdam gevolgd. In september 2024 is ze gestart als trainee bij De Nederlandsche Bank. In dit artikel vertelt ze meer over haar werk en het DNB traineeship.